Gold And Silver Have Further To Fall- When I Plan On Buying Again (NYSEARCA:GLD)

Published: June 24, 2026

The precious metals market has been a fascinating, albeit at times frustrating, landscape for investors over the past year. As we stand in mid-2026, the narrative around gold and silver continues to evolve, and while many are hoping for an immediate rebound, my analysis suggests that patience will be rewarded – particularly for those eyeing strategic re-entry points. I believe both gold and silver have further to fall before presenting truly compelling long-term buying opportunities.

The Headwinds Persist: Why the Dip Isn’t Over

Despite intermittent rallies and the persistent drumbeat of inflation concerns from a few quarters ago, the structural headwinds for gold and silver, specifically as non-yielding assets, remain significant.

1. Real Yields Still Attractive (Relatively): While central banks globally are navigating complex economic waters, real interest rates, though potentially leveling off, are still offering an alternative to holding non-yielding assets. The allure of government bonds, particularly as inflation expectations have tempered, continues to divert capital that might otherwise flow into precious metals. We’ve seen a gradual but steady rotation out of safe-haven gold and into income-generating assets.

2. Dollar Strength Resiliency: The U.S. Dollar, against expectations for some, has demonstrated remarkable resilience. Global economic uncertainty, coupled with ongoing geopolitical tensions, often sees the greenback as a preferred safe harbor. A strong dollar inherently puts downward pressure on dollar-denominated commodities like gold and silver.

3. Lack of Catalytic Panic: While there are always geopolitical simmering issues, we haven’t witnessed a truly catastrophic, market-shaking event that would trigger a full-scale flight to safety into gold. The market has become accustomed to absorbing shocks, and diversification into other asset classes, including specific sectors in equities (e.g., AI, infrastructure), has provided alternative havens.

From a technical perspective, gold (represented by GLD) has struggled to maintain momentum above the $185-$190 range, consistently retreating after testing these levels. Silver, known for its higher volatility, has mirrored gold’s struggle, often amplifying the downside.

My Buying Strategy: Waiting for the Flush-Out

My conviction is that we need a capitulation event – a final flush-out of weak hands and a re-pricing of risk – before a truly sustainable rally in precious metals can begin. I am preparing to accumulate significantly when the following conditions align:

1. Gold (GLD) Targeting $160-$165: I anticipate GLD to retest the crucial $160 support level, potentially even dipping into the $160-$165 range. This corresponds to gold prices around $1700-$1750 per ounce. This region has historically proven to be a robust accumulation zone, representing a psychological floor and significant technical support established during previous consolidation phases. I will begin scaling in gradually once GLD firmly breaches the $170 mark on its way down.

2. Silver Capitulation Below $20: Silver’s industrial demand component makes it more susceptible to economic slowdowns. I’m looking for silver prices to fall decisively below $20 per ounce, potentially even touching the $18-$19 range. This would likely correspond to significant weakness in the iShares Silver Trust (NYSEARCA:SLV). This level represents an undervalued territory given its dual role as a monetary metal and industrial commodity.

3. Fundamental Shift Signals:

   • Clear Dovish Pivot from Central Banks: Not just a pause, but explicit signals of upcoming rate cuts, driven by genuine concerns about economic contraction or significant disinflation.
   • Renewed Inflationary Pressure: A re-emergence of sticky inflation that conventional monetary policy struggles to contain, leading to a loss of confidence in fiat currencies.
   • Geopolitical Escalation: A significant, unforeseen global crisis that truly destabilizes markets and sends investors scrambling for traditional safe havens.

I plan to use a dollar-cost averaging strategy once my target entry points are met, building positions incrementally rather than attempting to catch the absolute bottom. This disciplined approach minimizes risk and maximizes long-term upside potential.

Conclusion: Patience is a Virtue

While the current environment may test the resolve of precious metals bulls, it also presents an exceptional opportunity for patient investors. I firmly believe in the long-term role of gold and silver as stores of value and hedges against systemic risk. However, entering at the right price point is paramount.

By resisting the urge to buy into minor bounces and waiting for a more profound correction, we can position ourselves to benefit significantly from the next major upswing in gold and silver. The journey might be bumpy, but for those with a long-term horizon, the reward for strategic patience will be golden. Read More